The 17th of the month is the first weekend since the weekend of April 17th where the top ten at the box office didn’t gross a total of $100M in early estimates, as the total figure topped out at approximately $99.6M, down from $158M last weekend. Michael continues to prove that audiences won’t stop ‘til they get enough, however, as it once again hits #1 in its fourth week.
An increase in PLF, primarily IMAX, helped Michael this week. Its total worldwide gross has surpassed $700M. The total for Michael from last week saw an increase from the estimates to the actuals, and perhaps this could happen again. The film slightly beat out its projections this week, granted by a very miniscule margin. With it still yet to open in Japan and the anniversary of his death being about a month away which theoretically could give it another boost post-Memorial Day, it seems all but guaranteed that this will surpass the $1B threshold for Lionsgate. Lionsgate likes to stick with the traditional 45 day window, but with how successful this is, an expansion wouldn’t be surprising, and its eventual streaming home being Starz makes it unlikely to be an immediate streaming hit.
The Devil Wears Prada 2 finished second which a significantly steeper drop. A ~57% drop weekend-over-weekend represents an $18M estimated finish. The film has now made over half a billion at the global box office.
More importantly, Focus Features latest horror venture Obsession, from YouTuber Curry Barker, finished just behind the legacy sequel at over $16M. The film was made at a $1M budget, but reportedly carries a total of $10M for the studio. This presumably comes from purchasing the rights to the film, and any eventual P&A for the film. Theoretically, the film should be profitable already but there’s no guarantee. It will be profitable with certainty by next weekend. Barker represents yet another YouTuber, alongside filmmakers such as RackaRacka, RadioSilence, and Markiplier, that’s found massive success in the horror movie space. Barker has already wrapped filming on his next feature, Anything but Ghosts, starring Breaking Bad star Aaron Paul. The bigger story is the breakout of Inde Navarrette, a former Superman and Lois actress who has immediately become an internet darling for her role as Nikki in the horror feature.
Mortal Kombat II dropped two spots in the box office rankings, coming in at $13M. This represents a brutal 65% drop. Its $13.4M total represents just about the same amount as its IMAX total ($13.1M) throughout its entire run. The good news for Mortal Kombat is that it became the first film in the franchise since the first Clinton term to surpass $100M globally, so with the second film in the trilogy being greenlit at less than $85M and this eyeing to double the global cume, it still may not be a great result, but shouldn’t be disastrous enough to keep the third installment from coming to fruition. It is worth noting that the $84M that the first of the trilogy brought in was a same-day streaming release during the unusual COVID-era box office, thus the expectations were substantially lower on what amount it’d bring in now that the habits of the moviegoer have seemed to have reversed course to pre-COVID behavior.
Amazon MGM’s two holdovers as well as Super Mario Galaxy finished out the top seven this week. The Sheep Detectives boisted a 38% drop, bringing its domestic cume to just under $30M. Its even DOM/WW split has it at $60M so far on a $75M budget. While it was never expected to be a big player, its pricetag demanded it to be. Amazon MGM as of now, especially with the success of Project Hail Mary we’ve covered ad nauseum in previous box office reports still hanging around at #7 despite its PVOD release, always hoped that this would at least recoup its budget. It should do that, which strong WOM will continue its success toward its eventual Prime Video release. As of now, releases such as The Sheep Detectives are long-terms plays designed to do two things: continue to build rapport with distributors and train audiences to expect quality films from future MGM theatrical plays. Due to this, The Sheep Detectives seems to have done its job.
The final two new films that cracked the top ten were Is God Is and In the Grey. Is God Is made around $2M, and with a budget reportedly in the teens, doesn’t seem like it’ll be a hit. It does boast strong reviews, and its relatively low-budget doesn’t doom it, and maybe it can turn a profit in quick fashion on Prime Video. In the Grey on the other hand…
In the Grey carries a budget between $59-$75M. At a $3M return on investment this week, it looks as though this movie will lose dozens of millions for Black Bear at the box office. It’s more proof that despite Guy Ritchie being a beloved action filmmaker, the traditional fare of the genre is just no longer viable outside of Jason Statham movies. Much like Sheep Detectives, profit isn’t the ideal goal yet for Black Bear though. Black Bear only distributed its first movie on its own last year with Christy, the Sydney Sweeney biopic about boxer Christy Martin that bombed at historic levels. While the overreaction to growing pains for a brand-new distributor will get headlines, Black Bear does eventually need to learn how to adequetely market their offerings or they may have to end the distribution venture before it truly begins.
One piece of bad history is the Billie Eilish concert film. Paramount certainly can’t be ‘Happier than Ever’ regarding the results. Between films that had at least 2,000 theatres in its second weekend, the projected 89% drop will be the largest in history. One Piece Film: Red and Joker: Folie a Deux both saw drops in the 80s, being the two films that rival it in recent memory. Paramount does have a modest success on its hand, as the re-releases of Top Gun and Top Gun: Maverick brought the studio more than $1M this weekend. Re-releases continue to do well at the box offices.
Looking ahead to Memorial Day weekend, The Mandalorian and Grogu release seems to be picking up interest, but still has low projections for what is going to be the first Star Wars entry in theatres this decade. While its marketing has underwhelmed, one could argue that they’ve trained their audience to watch these characters at home for, in theory, free. The other big releases: Boots Riley’s I Love Boosters and Paramount’s latest horror Passenger, both of which seem as though they could be sleeper theatrical successes over the holiday weekend.
Photo credit: Lionsgate.
Jameus Mooney is an entertainment writer for Comicbook Clique, having covered the entertainment industry for years. You can follow him on Twitter here, and Letterboxd here. You can also listen to his horror podcast, The 2:17 Horror Podcast, at the DeathArts XIII YouTube channel.